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Landing Page + Smoke Test

Put your promise in front of real people and ask for something real — an email, a click on a price, a deposit — before you build. Days of work instead of months.

Cost
$
Time to results
Days
Difficulty
Easy
Best for
B2B + B2C
0/7

Proof first

8 companies already did this.

Each example tests demand with a different signal — from an email address to a $1,000 deposit.

Deep dives

Two case studies, start to finish.

Buffer — the pricing-page test

Buffer · 2010

Two-page test · Paying users in 7 weeks

What they built: landing page → pricing page → "not ready yet"

What they didJoel Gascoigne put up a page describing Buffer with a "Plans and pricing" button. Clicking it told you the product wasn't ready and asked for your email. Once people signed up, he added a real pricing page with paid plans between the two steps.

Why it workedEvery click was a vote with intent, not an opinion in a survey. Seeing people choose a paid plan before the product existed justified building it — and it went from idea to paying customers in seven weeks of evenings and weekends.

Copy thisPut a pricing step before the email field. One click on a $5 plan is worth a hundred "I'd use that".

Zappos — sell it before you stock it

Zappos · 1999

Wizard of Oz · Orders before inventory

What they built: product photos taken in a local shoe store

What they didNick Swinmurn asked a shoe store in Sunnyvale if he could photograph its stock and list it online. If anyone ordered, he would buy the pair from the store at full price and ship it himself. Orders came in.

Why it workedThe idea's biggest risk — would people buy shoes without trying them on? — got tested with real money and zero inventory. Losing the margin on each early order was the price of knowing.

Copy thisFake the back end, never the demand. Fulfil the first orders by hand, even at a loss.

The guide

7 steps, each anchored to a real example.

Tick each step off as you go. Your progress is saved in this browser.

Step 1 · ~30 min

Write down your riskiest assumption

Name the one belief that kills the idea if it's wrong — "Shop owners will pay $30 a month to…". Your test exists to answer that sentence, and nothing else.

Notes appThe Mom Test (book)

How Zappos did this step

"I'll take some pictures, put your shoes online, and if people buy them, I'll buy them from you at full price."

Exact quote — see source

Swinmurn tested one question — would people buy shoes online? — with a deal any shop owner could understand.

Source [3] ↓

Step 2 · ~Half a day

Build one page that makes the promise

Headline: the outcome, for a specific person. One image or demo, one call to action. Make it look finished — a page that looks like a test gets test behaviour.

CarrdFramerWebflow

How Dropbox did this step

Illustration

Before Dropbox was open to the public, a 3-minute screencast showed exactly what it would do. The beta waiting list went from 5,000 to 75,000 people overnight.

Source [1] ↓

Step 3 · ~1 hour

Ask for something that costs them

An email is the weakest signal. Stronger: clicking a priced plan, booking a call, paying a refundable deposit. Use the strongest ask your audience will tolerate.

Stripe Payment LinksLemon SqueezyCalendly

How Buffer did this step

Illustration

Buffer put a pricing page between the promise and the email field, so every signup had already seen, and picked, a price.

Source [2] ↓

Step 4 · ~2–5 days

Send 100–500 of the right visitors

A page nobody visits validates nothing. Post where your users already are, message people who fit, or spend $50–150 on search ads aimed at the exact problem.

Google AdsRedditLinkedIn

How Tim Ferriss did this step

Illustration

Ferriss ran one search ad per candidate book title for a week and kept the one that drew the most clicks — for under $150. It became The 4-Hour Workweek.

Source [6] ↓

Step 5 · ~15 min

Decide the pass mark before you launch

Write it down first: "If 5% of visitors click a paid plan, I build. Under 1%, I rewrite the promise." Decide after you see the numbers and every result looks like a yes.

Spreadsheet

How Tesla did this step

Illustration

Tesla asked for a refundable $1,000 per Model 3 reservation — a high bar — and still collected more than 325,000 in the first week. A costly ask makes the number mean something.

Source [5] ↓

Step 6 · ~Days

Fake the back end, not the front

If people convert, deliver the first orders by hand — spreadsheets, email, your own time. You're testing whether they want the outcome, not whether you can automate it yet.

Google SheetsZapierEmail

How Groupon did this step

SUBJECT LINE

Illustration

Groupon started as a WordPress blog with a new deal post every day. The real platform came later, once people were buying.

Source [7] ↓

Step 7 · ~1 week

Talk to everyone who said yes

Email every signup within a day: "What made you sign up? How do you handle this today?" The replies tell you what to build first — and who will pay.

GmailCalendlyLoom

How Product Hunt did this step

"Within 20 minutes, I had an MVP."

Exact quote — see source

Ryan Hoover started Product Hunt as an email list on Linkydink. The reaction told him to build the site, which launched about a week later.

Source [8] ↓

Before you start

Pros & cons.

Works in your favour

  • Days instead of months — test before you build
  • Measures behaviour, not opinions
  • Cheap: one page and ~$100 of traffic
  • Sharpens your positioning before you write code
  • Leaves you with a list of interested people

Go in with eyes open

  • Easy to fool yourself — emails are not customers
  • Your traffic source shapes the result; friends are not your market
  • Fake doors annoy people if you don't follow up honestly
  • Some products are hard to describe before they exist

Make it yours

Three ways to run it.

The Dropbox model

Demo video · 5K → 75K overnight

Show the product working in a short video before it's ready for everyone. Best when the product is hard to explain in words.

The Buffer model

Pricing-page test

Promise → pricing → "not ready yet, leave your email". Best for SaaS, where willingness to pay is the real question.

The Tesla / Pebble model

Deposits & pre-orders

Ask for money up front, refundable or crowdfunded. Best for hardware and big-ticket products, where an email means little.

Copy and paste

Templates & resources.

Smoke-test page flow

modeled on Buffer's two-page test

PAGE 1
Headline: {Outcome} for {who} — without {pain}.
Sub: {How it works, in one line}.
Button: See plans & pricing →

PAGE 2 · Pricing
Free — {limit}  |  ${x}/mo — {main plan}  |  ${y}/mo — {teams}

PAGE 3
You're early! {Product} isn't quite ready.
Leave your email and you'll be first in: [ email ] [ Notify me ]

Pass / fail sheet

write it before you launch

Riskiest assumption: …
Traffic source: …
Visitors needed: 200+

Build if: ≥ {x}% click a paid plan
Rewrite if: {y}–{x}%
Stop if: < {y}%

Result: __ visitors · __ clicks · __% → decision: ____

First-reply email

modeled on Product Hunt's feedback loop

Subject: quick question (you signed up for {product})

Hi {name} — thanks for signing up. I'm {you}, and I'm building this myself.

Two quick questions:
1. What made you click?
2. How do you handle {problem} today?

One-line answers are perfect.
— {you}

From the showcase

Be the first founder featured here.

The famous examples above are proof it works. The next founder reading this wants proof it works for someone like them — that could be you.

Used “Landing Page + Smoke Test”? Submit your product →

Discussion

Tried this? Tell us how it went.

Share a result, ask a question, or say what you'd do differently. The next founder to try this will thank you.

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NOW MAKE IT YOURS

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Receipts

Sources & references.

Last reviewed

  1. 1.
    Dropbox's demo video: waitlist 5,000 → 75,000 overnight (opens in a new tab)

    Drew Houston, via TechCrunch, 2011

  2. 2.
    Buffer: idea to paying customers in 7 weeks (opens in a new tab)

    Joel Gascoigne, Buffer blog

  3. 3.
    Nick Swinmurn on starting Zappos (opens in a new tab)

    Fortune, 2012

  4. 4.
    Pebble: just over $10M from 68,929 backers (opens in a new tab)

    MIT Technology Review, 2013

  5. 5.
    Tesla Model 3: 325,000+ reservations in week one (opens in a new tab)

    IndustryWeek, 2016

  6. 6.
    Tim Ferriss tested book titles with search ads (opens in a new tab)

    Boing Boing, 2010

  7. 7.
    Andrew Mason on Groupon's WordPress start (opens in a new tab)

    Startup School 2010 talk, notes by Jacques Mattheij

  8. 8.
    Product Hunt began as an email list (opens in a new tab)

    Ryan Hoover, 2013

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